KSStorm Blog

[Edit: I linked both graphics incorrectly...should have uploaded them instead...these graphics are changing every time they are updates, so they are likely to not show what I'm talking about by the time you read this. As I write this edit, they are actually a bit higher values, for 7pm, than they were for 4pm.]

This one is based on some parameters that have more to do with larger tornadoes. Certainly nothing amazing, but definitely worth staying close to home for.

Pros: plenty of shear to work with, and from all indications the dry line will still be fairly sharp. The NAM shows a tongue of warmer surface temperatures right west of I-35 at 4pm, which tells me we’ll get the clearing we need for some instability.

Cons: instability is still mis-placed from shear, though the two are much closer than on previous model runs. Moisture return…as I write this, the 60′s are just about to, or in some cases across, the Red River. If we can get just a tad more SE component to the wind, and if things will slow down just a couple of hours, we could get the moisture here just at the right time.

Yeah, that’s a lot of if’s. My call: damaging wind/hail within 25 miles of Wichita, larger tornadoes will hold off until dark and be a bit east of here, but I would not be at all surprised with a tornado warning during the 5-6:30 timeframe in Wichita. NWS said yesterday this bore a lot of resemblance to 3/7, when we had the weak twisters just south of Hutch. I’d place todays 30-40 miles south of there.

Guess we’ll see, eh?

Two choices where to play on Monday: cold-core setup in northern Kansas/Southern Nebraska and a more traditional setup in southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma. I don’t have good luck with cold-core setups — still don’t understand the dynamics well enough to target. Plus the models are showing the southern target may adjust east of where I’d though, making it an easy hour or so drive to a target, and giving the ability to just follow the storms home.

Down side of that: the cell phone signal/data problem along the KS/OK line. Fortunately, the target looks to be between the worst state line signal problem areas (which are east of I-35 and west of US 281), so hopefully data won’t be as significant a problem as it was at times the last chase.

I have no doubt we’ll be looking at severe weather sometime after peak heating. Based on the models, I’m not so hot on the tornado prospects, as it seems instability and shear are displaced from one another at the critical times. For example, best shear on this morning’s runs looked to be in the Enid area, while better instability was east of I-35.

My feeling at this point is that we’ll have some decent storms through about the same time frame as the previous chase. The tornado risk may pick up a bit shortly after sunset, compared to the daylight hours. I’m going to change the routing to my initial target area to preserve a few more options, and the target itself will likely shift to the Enid area.

I’m still comfortable with the US183/283 corridor, probably in north central OK.