Monday Forecast Update

Two choices where to play on Monday: cold-core setup in northern Kansas/Southern Nebraska and a more traditional setup in southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma. I don’t have good luck with cold-core setups — still don’t understand the dynamics well enough to target. Plus the models are showing the southern target may adjust east of where I’d though, making it an easy hour or so drive to a target, and giving the ability to just follow the storms home.

Down side of that: the cell phone signal/data problem along the KS/OK line. Fortunately, the target looks to be between the worst state line signal problem areas (which are east of I-35 and west of US 281), so hopefully data won’t be as significant a problem as it was at times the last chase.

I have no doubt we’ll be looking at severe weather sometime after peak heating. Based on the models, I’m not so hot on the tornado prospects, as it seems instability and shear are displaced from one another at the critical times. For example, best shear on this morning’s runs looked to be in the Enid area, while better instability was east of I-35.

My feeling at this point is that we’ll have some decent storms through about the same time frame as the previous chase. The tornado risk may pick up a bit shortly after sunset, compared to the daylight hours. I’m going to change the routing to my initial target area to preserve a few more options, and the target itself will likely shift to the Enid area.