KSStorm Blog

After days and days (and days and days) of blow­ing off fore­cast­ing because there just wasn’t any­thing to be con­cerned about, it looks like time to start pay­ing atten­tion again. There have been hints since about this time yes­ter­day that Thurs­day could be an active day in south­east Kansas and north­east Okla­homa. But I’ve been kind of pooh-poohing that, as I didn’t buy into the thought that mois­ture could make a return quickly enough. But what a change!

Now the mod­els show a low rapidly deep­en­ing Thurs­day morn­ing over Okla­homa, and basi­cally sit­ting atop Wichita by late after­noon. Mois­ture return is look­ing MUCH bet­ter than orig­i­nally fore­cast, and if this front doesn’t make it quite as far south as it’s sup­posed to, could be even better.

Down­sides: cold-core low and warm front storms. I don’t have enough expe­ri­ence on the cold-core low setup to feel strong in call­ing it, while I just don’t like warm front storms — though they are nearly all I’ve had to play with so far this year, and I’ve had a 100% suc­cess rate so far.…

We’ll have to see. I’ll pull the trig­ger on a chase deci­sion about this time tomorrow.