Risk/Reward

As Matt said yesterday, a high-risk, high-reward scenario is setting up for this afternoon. High risk of a bust, but if something goes, I’m pretty confident we’ll be right on it. If we go, of course…decision hasn’t been made but I’m leaning a lot more toward going than I was earlier.

Significant Tornado Parameter, 7pm CDT

Forecast Skew-T’ diagrams for Chanute and Parsons at that time are interesting, to say the least. Depending on which model you choose, there could be a nice cap (-25) against CAPE values of 1500-2500. Storm bases are low, and while the wind shear isn’t what one would like, there’s some there. At least, enough I think it could be worth the drive. I’m holding off on a firm decision until the midday model runs are completely in, but I’d say 70-30 chance we’ll go.