Tuesday Update – Watch Issued, 1st Storms Fired

The Thunderstorm Watch is from here northeast, until 10pm. I think SPC went with that because the tornado risk is so conditional and so early in the watch period. AFAIK, a tornado would verify a thunderstorm watch, anyway.

One of the models had a nearly perfect handle on this first batch of storms in its run around midday. THey are p laying out almost exactly as the model showed, scooting to the northeast and out of our area with apparently low-end severe weather. Based on that model (with some reinforcement from another one updated more frequently) I’m looking for the weather maker storms to fire a little southeast of Wichita….it’s going to be a close call as to whether it misses town, I think… In that batch of storms, any severe mode is possible. I think any tornadoes that happen will be fairly brief, as the storms should line out pretty quickly.

The dry line and cold front (they are pretty close together, if the front hasn’t already passed the dry line) are continuing to move through the metro now, but they’ve slowed a bit, I think. The last batch of storms fired right on them. I think the next batch will be out ahead just a bit.