KSStorm Blog

An out-of-band commend from a friend concerning this morning’s post made me feel the need to clarify something I said in each of the last two posts. That’s the comments about patterns that look like certain historical tornado days.

See, I’m a pattern person. I don’t have but a smattering of meteorological background, and any knowledge I have is the result of watching others and the patterns of the atmosphere. That and a little reading inthe past few years.

So when I say the pattern for resembles May 3, 1999, I’m not really saying I think the outcome will be the same. I’m saying the forecasts, at least according to the models I believe and the patterns my mind recognizes subconsciously, indicate the highest probability for severe weather in a pattern that is like May 3rd. In other words, I buy into a solution that has big storms in both Oklahoma and Kansas, about 90 minutes to 2 hours’ drive apart, including strong, long-lived tornadoes.

Do I think either Moore or Haysville are gonna get clobbered again? As of this moment, no. Others have said this bears resemblance to the US 160 outbreaks in 2004. I mentioned a passing resemblance to the Andover tornado yesterday.

I think what this really means is that all the ingredients are there. The way they are setting up resembles, in some fashion, aspects of one or more of those days. But this *is* forecasting, and we *are* talking about the atmosphere. The devil is in the subtle details we *can’t* forecast until 6-8 hours before storms fire, if then. Any one of a laundry list of things changes in the wrong way and we get nothing. A couple of them change the other way and we have a major problem.

The takeaway is that tomorrow is not a day to be complacent about. If you are in the I-35/135 corridor give or take 90 minutes’ drive, south of I-70, you should be aware of your surroundings and how they are changing between about 3pm and 10pm tomorrow.

BTW: The models came into a little better agreement at 12z (7am). In Kansas they are narrowing down the area of potential, IMO. They are also elevating the Oklahoma potential. I don’t see a reason to shift targeting much yet. My line to be somewhere along at initiation is somewhere in the Clearwater to Kingman vicinity…depending a lot on what happens tonight and through 1pm tomorrow.

1. Heather Caven-Smull says:

   May 9, 2010 at 23:58

   I don’t see anything wrong with your posts, Scott. Like yourself, I don’t have any “official” weather training other than the “storm spotter school” put on by the NWS every spring (I am a few years out of date, though). I’ve lived in KS most my life, and you can’t help but learn a thing or three about the weather … if you only pay attention. I can see where you’d make a reference to a previous storm pattern or set-up because that’s a good way to reference the information for the “lay people” (average Joe’s). Thanks for taking the time to learn and share, please keep it up. I, for one, enjoy reading your thoughts on the subject.