KSStorm Blog

I’m going to share a different graphic with you today. This is one of the overlays available on my radar application, GRLevel3. It is a bit confusing because it crams what is four images on the SPC website into one.

The red circle, marked HIGH, in the southeast corner of the image is the SPC high risk area. Very close to it, in orange, is the 30% tornado risk. Now look just southwest of Wichita. The light orange line closest to Wichita is the 15% risk of tornado line. The yellow line, next west, is the SPC Moderate Risk line.

Now the item of concern, IMO. The Purple line, marked SIG. That denotes the area in which SPC believes there is a “10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.”

Also of concern, from a property damage potential standpoint: the light green line next to the west – 45% probability of hail. And though I don’t show it on this view, the area is hatched on the SPC site, meaning a “10% or greater probability of hail 2″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.”

So, in spite of the high risk being moved to our southeast, I think it’s premature to let out our collective breath. The hazards if something goes today are in the significant category.

I expect to see the High risk area come back just a bit to the west. But from the standpoint of chasing in the metro area and the population impact of the worst weather, I’m liking where it is a little better than where I thought it would be. The high-risk bullseye will distract many of the uninformed people who will clog the roads and make it hard for those of us whose job is to inform others of the events in real-time to do what we do. The casual chasers will focus on the high risk and leave us alone. That leaves the untrained “chasers” – called a number of other derogatory names by many – the people for whom “Twister” was a training film. ‘Nuff said. I still expect the roads to be a zoo, but with the high-risk bullseye to our southeast, we’ll lose some of the gridlock.

I’m not making any fine-tuning decisions on my targeting until the 0z (7am) models are out, but I will say my thinking hasn’t changed a lot concerning where and how we’ll approach it. We may not get on the storm of the day…but if it looks to me like storms will directly threaten Wichita, I’ll defer to staying in the metro. It’s a day when I take my warning responsibility – and if something happens, my responsibility to help – more seriously than getting the greatest video. There are a lot of days those two motivations are competing in me, but today it’s a no-brainer for me.

Time to work so I can have the deck clear by 11 for an in-depth discussion with Matt. I may post a short update about 7:30 or 8, otherwise the next one will likely come as we get ready to roll – right now we’re planning on being in the field by 2:30-3pm.

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