KSStorm Blog

Pick­ing up a graphic from Matt’s web­site here, that I think rep­re­sents today’s out­look pretty well.

The HRRR seems to have a much bet­ter han­dle on con­di­tions today than it did last week. I’d say the 09z (4am) run’s fore­casted pre­cip­i­ta­tion for 6am CT matches pretty well with the radar image at 6am.

In keep­ing with Matt’s think­ing, I’m com­bin­ing what I saw in the NAM and the HRRR with a slight tweak based on GFS. I’m lean­ing about 30 miles north of where he is for a start­ing point, though. As I said yes­ter­day, around Stafford to some­where in north­ern Stafford county. HRRR, RUC and a merge of the fore­cast sound­ings (GFS and NAM) for the Lyons & Great Bend areas make the area around the inter­sec­tions between the Stafford, Reno, Rice and Bar­ton county lines my area of inter­est in the 4-8pm time frame.

Roxan, Nolan, Matt and I will be out tomor­row. I’m lean­ing toward the triple-point play, some­where give or take 30 miles of a Stafford to Hays line. Prob­a­bly we’ll run up K96 and go the back way from Hutch to north­ern Stafford county. We’ll see. Maybe on up to Lyons and into Great Bend.

It has been a while since I’ve done a triple-point play…usually like the dry line bet­ter. But there’s some­thing about the setup that’s telling me I should hunt the triple point this time.

Still quite a few poten­tial issues with this setup…models are still about 50–80 miles apart on the larger risk areas. They’re com­ing into bet­ter agree­ment than a week ago, though.