Early on, we decided to take the cells just SW of Dodge City…but seeing that things would be moving quickly, we decided that we’d skirt Pratt and go meet the storms as they arrived in the Macksville area. Sat on the west edge of Macksville for maybe half an hour and saw what may have been a rain-wrapped funnel pass just northwest of town.

We pulled east a little bit and watched the storm as it continued to go to the northeast. This was the storm that would become the first large tornado of the day as it came near Goessel, Marquette, and eventually Salina. We let that storm go on to the northeast and regrouped for a bit in Stafford. The plan then was to intercept the storm coming through Barber and Pratt county at the time, about Arlington. That one passed to our west, with maybe a brief funnel, but I don’t really think so.

Next was a dash for Kingman for gas stop, and to get just ahead of the storm coming through western Harper county at the time. We sat east of Kingman just off 54 and watched that one funnel several times as it passed north and west of town. We shot east to K17 to try and get back on the cell in the Pretty Prairie area.

Shortly after shooting this photo just south of Pretty Prairie, we arrived at Parallel Road and turned west…just in time to see this low-contrast, weak tornado cross the road:

Video: Funnel North of Pretty Prairie

As we came out of the area where this was and tried to catch up with the storm as it headed just to the south of Hutchinson, we got caught in the chaser horde, including Reed Timmer and his hangers-on. They decided to follow the storm, which went on to go through the Moundridge area. We let them. Chaser horde, ugh.

Our plan was to scoot down the west side of Sedgwick and Sumner counties to Argonia…we already had our eyes on the storm coming out of Oklahoma that would become the Oatville tornado. It got dark while we made this re-positioning run.

After we decided to go east from Argonia, we kept a really close eye on the storm and would pull east a mile or two every ten minutes or so as it turned ever so slightly to the right. What we were seeing on the RADAR was – well, beyond description. The range to the Argonia storm from the Vance AFB site is comparable the distance from Dodge City’s site to Greensburg.  Last night’s storm was showing simply unfathomable winds in the mesocyclone. Colors I’d never seen on my screen. They would persist until the storm cycled near Clearwater, picking up and weakening just slightly before tightening back up and sitting down at Oatville.

These video grabs are from about 9:30pm, as I recall. Taken looking west on US 160 from about half a mile west of Milan Road. Argonia would have been just to the left of the frame.

At this point, it appears to be a funnel when it’s lit up. Between the computer screen and traffic on US 160, my night vision was shot, but a few minute earlier when it was southwest of us, all four of us had caught a couple of lightning-lit glances of the wedge tornado and a smaller satellite twister that I described during this TV report:

TV screen shot taken by Laura White, who was in her shelter with Cristi, my youngest daughter, and Ryan, Pat’s son. They were near Clearwater, and were looking right down the throat of this storm.

After the storm passed to our north, we made the decision to high-tail it to the turnpike and get back north, meeting the storm again as it crossed Clearwater Road west of Broadway. As we were getting into that position, we heard that Emergency Management reported the tornado had lifted outside Clearwater. We got to Meridian and Clearwater Road and went north, planning to sit on the west edge of Haysville and watch the storm.

Now we shift to RADAR shorts with our location overlaid. I’ll let them speak for themselves. Times are at the upper right of the images. Take a look in the lower right of the image at the RADAR-measured wind speeds in the storm. In this first one, 98 knots (112 MPH) toward the RADAR site, 100 knots (115 MPH) away from the RADAR. That’s an insane amount of shear! (Speed is the forward sped of the storm)

Some notes here: the path I show on this map is solely my estimate based on the RADAR images from the time period and the degree of damage I saw. I do not believe the official damage assessment/survey is done, so the path may not bear any resemblance to what the weather service marks as the official storm path.

At 10:20pm, we were crossing the Turnpike bridge on 71st street south. Damage started at the foot of the bridge – in fact, the signs for northbound traffic just to the south of the bridge were sheared off. We dodged multiple 4–5” or maybe larger branches in the road, including having one fall just as we passed and scrape the magnetic antennas off the roof.

At 10:22, we were turning right at 63rd and Hydraulic. This is the location an entire garage roof was lifted off the garage. My instincts told me we were in strong inflow wind of 70 MPH or greater, and the tornado was just to our north obscured by rain. Nolan reported seeing power flashes to our north. We’d been seeing power flashes in our vicinity since we were just SW of Haysville.

At 10:24 the rain was blinding, the wind blowing it nearly horizontal, and it was coming from the southeast. We were passing 63rd & Clifton at this time, Based on previous experiences being in the inflow of a developing tornado, I think this is about the time the tornado set down, a mile to our north in the trailer park. We continued east just as fast as we could, allowing for traffic lights that were out and keeping the van at a speed that would avoid hydroplaning.

We cleared the rain shaft about 63rd and Greenwich Road – maybe closer to 127th, I’m not sure. Though we continued to chase, we had allowed the tornado to get several miles north of us by this time. At US 54 and Santa Fe Lake Road, we called off the chase and went back to see whether Matt’s home or my home had been damaged. We stopped near 63rd and Madison and Matt took several photos of old trees that had been toppled and had the root ball showing.

My house is less than 1000 feet from my 10:20pm location on the map above. All we had, damage-wise, was some branches down about the diameter of my thumb. Matt had some smaller branches and leaves down, in the Pawnee and Seneca area.

Exciting…yes. Too close? Yes.

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

High (70%)

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots (75 mph)

High (80%)

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

High (80%)

Wichita is NOT included in this one.

We’ll be headed west in about 2 hours. Today is shaping up to be a long day, so we’re letting the early storms go in order to preserve some energy for later.

AND:

The 45% tornado risk area has been extended south. It hasn’t updated to my RADAR app yet, but I think it includes Wichita.

THIS IS STILL A BIG DEAL

There have been some people who took the change from 60% risk in yesterday’s Day 2 outlook to a 30% tornado risk in today’s Day 1 outlook as a lessening of the risk for today. It is not anything of the type. Let’s compare it to shopping for fruit at the grocery store. Yesterday, forecasters were as certain as they can be that we’d be shopping for apples today. This morning, they have a decent certainty that we’ll come home with the Pink Lady apples that are on sale.

Total severe weather risk probability is what the outlooks are based on through Day 2. That’s “apples” in the example. Tornado probability, hail probability, and wind probability are separately forecast in the day 1 outlook. They’d be Pink Lady, Granny Smith, and Jonathan apples in the example above.

Pink Lady (Tornado)	Granny Smith (Hail)	Jonathan (wind)

Pick a point. I’m going to use Kingman as my example. Within a 25-mile circle centered at Kingman High School, there is a 30% risk of tornadoes between now and 7am tomorrow. There is a 30% risk of 1” or greater hail, and a 15% risk of wind at or above 60mph.

But here’s the important thing…in addition to the 30% risk of any tornado happening, there is a 10% probability of a tornado of EF2 or greater strength. That’s the hatched area. For hail, the hatching means there is a 10% risk of 2-inch or larger hail.

Bottom line: this is not going to be a pretty day. To echo some things I’ve said on Facebook: it’s not a day to try your hand at storm chasing. If you receive a warning, resist your Kansas urge to go outside and see if the warning is for real. Just take cover.

My Pre-Storm Preparations

These are the thing I’m doing to prepare for the storms. They are different than yours may be, as I will be out in the storms and may be called to help in any response to a storm-impacted community I’m close to. I’ve highlighted the things I think are important for anyone to do today

• In my van, I have an emergency kit that includes several road flares, a first aid kit, a box of nitrile gloves (a lighter version of what EMS workers use) and heavier gloves for each person that will be with me today. I have also put a crowbar in the van in case of the need to break something to rescue a person, and I have a million-candlepower spotlight to help with night activities.
• I have gathered all my vital documents (home insurance paperwork, ID for all family members, passports, immunization records for the kids, and other things needed to establish who I am and what I own if the worst happens. I take this set of folders with me on a day like today. You should have it within arms reach to take with you to shelter.
• After finishing this post, I will do a walk-around of my home with a video camera, to record the contents of the house and garage. It’s the quickest way I know to have an up-to-date inventory of what’s in the house in case of an insurance claim.
• Our family will be in four locations tonight…one of us is quite a distance away from here. That person (Roxan) is the designated contact point for the others in the family if something happens. We, and our extended family members, will call her to check on us. She knows the exact locations of each of the rest of us throughout the day today. Please, take time now to set up a contact point outside the area that everyone in your family can call to verify you’re okay. Remember, in a major  disaster, the phone service is likely to be lost. If you can get a message out, that’s a single call. Your extended family can contact your point person, rather than trying to call into the disaster area and get hold of you.
• Cash and gasoline are good things to have stocked up.
• Remember to prepare a disaster kit if you haven’t. I’ve posted links to several resources on my Facebook profile.

Ok, Ok…so where am I chasing today?

There’s been a lot of discussion in other venues about why. Given time constraints, I’m not going to reiterate that stuff. This is a day to keep a weather radio close by and be aware of your surroundings. Don’t change your activity plans at this point….just be aware, and ready to take shelter this afternoon and evening if needed.

RADAR depiciton of Vertically Integrated Liquid — a proxy for hail — at 7:57 pm

Decent Hail Possibility at 7:57pm

The storm at this point was just south of the dry line, moving toward it. (Ignore my position, and the hail report. I captured the image about 8:10, out of my RADAR app’s history)

Here’s 10 minutes later, after the hail report, and after it had crossed the dry line.

At 8:07pm, storm is dying.

Perfectly valid decision not to warn, as the storm behaved just as expected — crossed the dry line and died. Beyond valid — a good decision. Kudos to the WFO ICT Warning Met on duty tonight.

Severe weather is still several hours upstream from SC KS.

Here’s an image like I see when I’m chasing. It’s from my RADAR app, and the lines indicate the tornado risk. I’ve labeled them for you, as well.

Just what do those designators mean?

The percentage risks mean if you pick any one point within the line (in this case, to the southwest of it), there is either a 5% or a 10% risk of any tornado (EF-0 or greater) occurring within 25 miles of that point. So, there is a 5% risk of any tornado happening within 25 miles of my front porch. If I lived in South Haven, the risk would be 10% of any tornado within 25 miles of me.

A risk of significant tornadoes means forecasters believe what tornadoes do form have the potential to cause EF-2 or greater damage.  Harper, Danville and Argonia are in the area that has a 5% risk of tornadoes, but if they happen, forecasters believe they could be strong. The entire 10% lies within the significant tornado circle.

Let’s look at the same thing for hail: On this map I’ve turned off the road display.

This time the red line is a 30% risk of hail. The light blue line outside it is the Significant Hail line, a circle in which forecasters believe hail could exceed 2 INCHES in size. The darker blue line slicing the northwest corner of Reno county is the 15% risk of hail line.

I’m still liking Wellington as a start point, but may decide to shade things a bit north of there, we’ll see. Still not planning to get on the road until between 4 and 5…probably the latter end of that hour.

Some mixed emotions about today, though for a different reason than yesterday. We’re getting SO focused on tomorrow that I’m afraid today may surprise many people, leading to another false chorus of “we didn’t have any warning.” For those in the southern two tiers of Kansas counties and the northern two tiers of Oklahoma counties between US-77 and US-281, today is not a day to let down your weather awareness.

I won’t be surprised to see a moderate risk posted for today at the mid-day SPC update. But given a level of uncertainty in the models, they may hold back again like they did in the AM update. Definite day-before-the-day pattern developing here. Storms firing off a retreating dryline, not so common around here on big weather days. That will make for an interesting evolution, regardless of how it goes.